Method. Effective shortfall weights Hormuz fully and Red Sea oil at 15–35% (route tax, not full barrel loss). ΔP/P ≈ (1/ε)·share + ρ. Oil bill = Q·ΔP·τ. Freight: baseline $0.8B/mo when Red Sea open; scales with Cape factor and oil-linked bunker. Fertilizer: 16 Mt/y seaborne-class × share × χ_H × +$150/t shock. Food index pedagogical. GDP: ~0.2 pp per +$10/bbl annualized rule of thumb × (τ/365). Winners/losers lists activate from χ and β — qualitative specificity, not equity research.