Debt → Flow → Contracts

Debt path—

sources · loading debt · — Fed · — RRP · — PD auctions · — interest · — F-35 · — GAO life · — 13F LMT · — CHIPS · —

φ—

N_eff—

residual—

decay—

deals—

Map · debt-rooted topology

Borrowing and the Fed print layer sit at the root. Banks intermediate. Foundations and managers warehouse claims. MIC/TIC/FIC convert claims into contracts that redistribute.

Valve test

Lab knobs

Bypass β0.02

Top-holder share0.28

Switching cost σ0.82

Engagement intensity0.55

Live readouts

Focusing ratio φ—

Effective holders N_eff—

Channel residual r—

Forecast half-life—

Bounded future

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Money lineage instrument